مناقشة النشرة الموسمية الجديدة للموسم المطري2010/2011 (إصدارة شهر تشرين ثاني)

ألف مبارك لسامر .. والله بتستاهل ... والحمد لله في ناس بتقدر عملك شكراً لأبو الشاكر

والله الاخ سامر انا من المتابعين له وما شاء الله تحليلاته منطقيه

اقتباس: المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة سامرt   سأطرح عدد من الاوراق المتعلقه بالعام 2010 حيث كان هذا العام الاكثر دفئا منذ 1850م......... مع ارتباط وثيق بالعام 1998م لاحظوا من خلال الرسم البياني الذي سأدرجه بالاسفل والذي يمثل 19دوله تشكل بما مساحته 20% من مساحه الكره الارضيه وجميعها تعرضت لموجات حاره خلال العام الدافيء عام 2010 هذه الدول منها عربيه سنقوم بالتعرج عليها قليلا فقد سجل في مطار الدوحه في قطر في 14يوليو درجه حراره وصلت الى 50.4درجه مئويه وهي بذلك تحطم الرقم القياسي السابق 49.6في يوليو2000 في السودان وصلت درجه الحراره في منطقه دنقلا في 22يونيوالى 49.7درجه مئويه وهي بذلك تحطم الرقم القياسي السابق 49.7في يوليو1987م في المملكه العربيه السعوديه وصلت درجه الحراره في جده في22يونيو الى 52.درجه مئويه وحطمت الرقم القياسي السابق 51.7في ابقيق في الكويت وصلت درجه الحراره في منطقه العبدلي في 15يونيو52.6درجه مئويه وحطمت الرقم القياسي السابق 51.9في يوليو2007 في العراق وصلت درجه الحراره في البصره في 14يوينو52درجه مئويه وحطمت الرقم القياسي السابق 51.7في 8اغسطس 1937 في منطقتنا وصلت درجه الحراره في وادي الاردن في 7أغسطس الى 51.4درجه مئويه حيث تجاوزت الارقام السابقه في 22يونيو1942بدرجه مئويه وسأطرح العديد من الاوراق خلال هذه الليله بأذن الله وتوفيقه نواصل في طرح الاوراق الخاصه بالعام 2010 فقد كانت الفتره من يناير حتى اكتوبر 2010 دافئه بشكل غير عادي لاحظوا الصوره في الاسفل فقد سجلت درجات الحراره شذوذ بما مقداره 0.65درجه مئويه خلال العام 2010وجاء بعد ذلك العام 2005 بشذوذ وصل الى 0.62درجه مئويه في حين جاء عام 1998م في المركز الثالث بشذوذ بلغ حوالي 0.59درجه مئويه لاحظوا ذلك ويلاحظ ان شرق المتوسط عانى من شذوذ تراوح ما بين 2-4.1درجه مئويه خلال العام الحالي لاحظوا في الاسفل الشذوذ خلال اكتوبر الماضي حيث وصل الى حوالي 0.62درجه مئويه بينما وصل الشذوذ خلال سبتمبر 0.54درجه مئويه تروح الشذوذ في منطقتنا خلال اكتوبر ما بين 1-4درجات مئويه كما عانت مناطق واسعه من القطب الشمالي ايضا من درجات حراره فوق معدلاتها و تراوح الشذوذ فوق جزيره جرينلاند ما بين 1-4درجات مئويه لاحظوا هنا من خلال الرسم البياني التالي حيث كان العام 2010 الاكثر دفئا وكانت الفتره من 2000-2010 العقد الاكثر دفئا ايضا والله اعلم

سنقف قليلا مع سلوك الدائره القطبيه شمالا وعلاقتها بالرياح شبه ثنائيه السنوات QBO لاحظوا ما حدث في 26 من الشهر الجاري الرياح العرضيه في طبقه 50هكتوباسكال شرقيه في معظم مناطق القبه القطبيه الشماليه وفي منطقه شرق المتوسط ادى ذلك الى ارتفاع قيم الضغط على القبه القطبيه AO- وضغط منخفض على اجزاء واسعه من القاره الاوروبيه والشمال الافريقي وموجات بارده هناك والله اعلم

زادك الله علما أخ سامر... ونفعنا بما آتاك من فضله.

يعطيك العافية و معلومات مميزة جدا و كثيرة و لكن صراحة مش قادر افهمها (مش فاهم شو القصة ههههههه ) اذا في مجال بس تعطي لمحة بسيطة عن تاثير هذا الكم الهائل من المعلومات بشكل مبسط ( يعني شو تاثير ذلك على الاردن بلغة مبسطة غير علمية)

اقتباس: المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة محمد نبيل الشاكر  بروفيسورنا شكراً لإثرائك بمشاركاتك القيمة.. و أسأل الله أن تكون في ميزان حسناتك.. بالنسبة لطابع الموسم الذي يكون فيه ظاهرة النينا.. فعادةً لا يوجد تشابه كبير في سنوات النينا بين بعضها بعكس النينو و ذلك من خلال دراستي المتواضعة خلال الشهرين الماضيين.. و لكن هناك أمر مميز و ملفت للنظر بأن النينا يكون بها حالات قوية و منتظمة لفترة متصلة من الوقت (مثلاً شهر نشط و فعال يُتبع بشهر خامل تماماً).. و لا أخفيك أيضاً.. بأننا بعيدون عن 1998/1999 على الأقل من الناحية النظرية الإحصائية.. أود التعمق أكثر في موضوع الـ AMO.. هذا رسم بياني صممته يُبين السنوات التي كانت بها النينا سائدة.. و يُوضّح حالات الـ AMO خلال فصل الخريف مع كميات الأمطار (في عمان) خلال ذلك الموسم هل هي أعلى أم أقل.. (طبعاً في سنة 1950 يعني موسم 1950/1951 بينما قيمة الـ AMO هي لخريف 1950): و هذا الرسم.. يُوضح الـ AMO مع المواسم المطرية المُختارة من قبلنا (سنوات التشابه) و وضع الموسم المطري في العاصمة عمان: و هنا دمجت ذلك مع قيم الـ NAO كمعدل خلال أشهر الخريف.. و ذلك في محاولة لفهم فيما إذا كانت هناك علاقة مُعنية تربط هذه الأمور مع بعضها البعض،، العلاقة التي وجدتها قد لا تكون قوية و لكنها موجودة و مُبشرة في نفس الوقت..دقق النظر: في موسم اللانينا عام 1950 كانت قيم مؤشر حرارة شمال الأطلسي يميل للموجب بصورة طفيفة.. ذلك كان يترافق مع قيم سالبة لمؤشر شمال الأطلسي خلال الخريف و النتيجة كانت أمطار أعلى من مُعدلاتها خلال الشتاء التالي.. كذلك الأمر في موسم 1955 و لعل العلاقة هنا واضحة جداً..كيف أن مؤشر حرارة شمال الأطلسي موجب.. و مؤشر شمال الأطلسي سالب.. و الموسم المطري أعلى من المُعدل.. بقية سنوات التشابه لا يوجد قيم موجبة لمؤشر حرارة شمال الأطلسي منذ ذلك الوقت و وصولاً حتى موسم 1999 (طبعاً في سنوات التشابه المختارة من قبلنا).. لاحظ في ذلك الموسم حدث العكس تماماً..لدينا قيم مؤشر درجة حرارة شمال المحيط الأطلسي موجبة.. تترافق مع مؤشر شمال الأطلسي موجب.. و النتيجة كانت موسم دول المعدل.. كمجمل.. هذا الأمر تكرر بشكل لافت في موسم 2007/2008 (قيمة الموسم المطري غير مُثبتة و لكن الموسم إنتهى دون المُعدل).. فهذه علاقة واضحة.. و لكن إذا طبقت لبقية سنوات النينا قد لا تجد ما تكفي من القوة لكي تساندها... الوضع الحالي يُساند موسمي 1950 و 1955 حيث مؤشر حرارة شمال المحيط الأطلسي موجب و مؤشر شمال الأطلسي سالب..فهل سيكون الموسم أعلى من المُعدل؟؟ نسأل الله ذلك سؤالك الأخير جوابه بأنني من خلال دراستي لهذا الأمر.. لا أتوقع أن تصل قيم مؤشر درجة حرارة سطح مياه شمال المحيط الأطلسي إلى المرحلة السالبة.. خلال أشهر الشتاء.. إنما قد تُلامس قيم مُتعادلة..و لكنني أتوقع أن ترتفع مُجدداً في شهر فبراير.. و لكن ليس ذلك دليلاً قوياً إستخدمته على تراجع أداء ذلك الشهر..إنما المزيد و المزيد من الأمور.. أية أسئلة أخرى أنا جاهز دكتور.. تقبل مروري.. محمد ما اجمل هذا النقاش وهذه الفائده العلميه الكبيره .... نفتقدك محمد الشاكر .......................

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