My Problem with the lates GFS run and the overall trend for Friday is that the initial wave of precipitation at 21Z on thursday, the only peroid of evenly distributed large scale front-induced penetration of precipitation on the Jordan Large city western border is lagging in the 850 hPa temperature department, which means a large amount of the accumulating snow is lost, these "initial" or opening power front usually account for 60-70 percent of accumulations, so while the 500hPa height and 850 hPa are promising for Friday 00z onwards, the precipitation will be the type we usually see after those "big" accumulation bursts, meaning the only snowfall we will recieve will be the choppy (on and off) unevenly distrubted (the "hit and miss" moments) that everyone gets annoyed from which delievers snow during short sporadic intervals and we all have to sit nervously and manically staring at the IMS radar telling and projecting with each other on the forum where and when the next cell or precipitation vessel will hit... its both non productive, and give opportunity for rapid melting and inefficient overall accumulation on the ground.
Based on this scenario, will it snow, probably
Will it stick, maybe
that depends on the up-push and penetration of the North African high, the angle it pushes (a more vertical angle would solve the temperature problem but lower overall precipitation amount, a more angular attack which would give wider overall penetration to the polar cut would give deeper seed, more precipitation, but a longer time elapsed before 850hPa temperatures drop, HOWEVER the low will have more time over the sea so the subsequent temperature drop will be accompanied by a more evenly distributed and only mildly choppy stream of precipitation for western Jordan.... Palestine should be fine either way
The EU combined both above scenarios and and gave us a wonderful aspect, well see how it plays out
رد: مناقشــة الأحـــوال الجويـــة السائدة والمتوقعة خلال شهر كانون الثاني / يناير 201
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